Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
