Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
